Require: making three substantive and relevant comments on one or more of your peers’ comments. Question: Malthusian Economies: What are the key requirements for a society to get stuck in a Malthusian configuration? 1)The scarcity of resources, a lack of trade activities, and technological stagnation are likely to trap a society in a pre-industrial Malthusian economy. The Malthusian model indicates an exponential growth in population and linear growth in natural resources. Population contributes to income and output to a certain degree – only if the standard of living is not compensated due to insufficient resources. Equilibrium eventually breaks when population growth consistently outpaces resource growth. The turnover ability varies across societies depending on the availability of resources. A society with more lands or water sources is more elastic at digesting the “downside” of population growth – more mouth to feed. In this case, the standard of living will not be significantly compensated by a larger population. Such a society is also more resilient to negative shocks such as a low-yield crop season under social disorder, natural disasters, or diseases. When the productivity of nature is unpleasant, society can boost its labor efficiency or enrich its resource pool. More human capital and technology are needed to boost per-capita efficiency when the number of resources handy is limited. Otherwise, society needs to seek external resources from trade. The Malthusian configuration is most likely to occur in poor societies. They are less capable of avoiding resource constraints through trading with other societies. A Malthusian economy often experiences technological stagnation that results in higher shares of natural resource rents in gross income than do rich societies. 2)In general, theoretically, as the population increases, their productivity increases, so their livelihoods should be continuously guaranteed. However, according to the article “The Condition of the Working Class in England,” figure 3 graph shows that the population increased in the 1800s rather than the 1300s, but the real wage relative to the population actually decreased. Therefore, it is disproved that productivity should increase unconditionally as the population increases, and this period becomes the period of the ‘Malthusian era’. Thus, the first element of society under the Malthusian is a rare technological advance. Without advances in technology, productivity will hit the limit and it will be impossible to improve the standard of living of humans despite the rapid increase in the population. For instance, in the absence of agricultural technology, no matter how much labor is increased on the limited land, the amount of product that can be produced per land is fixed due to the limitations of agricultural technology, so their productivity is lowered compared to the increase in the population. Second, developing countries, or historically poor countries, are also an element in the Malthusian configuration. Even after the Industrial Revolution, some members of countries with great social benefits (such as Europe and the United States) still experienced significant improvements in the standard of living available to others, whereas developing countries, still experienced extreme economic hardship. In the article “Divergence, Big Time,” Lant Pritchett mentions that a rapid increase in productivity gives developing countries high growth potential, but stagnation is likely. In short, Low-growth countries due to historical poverty are experiencing difficulties in trade and economic stagnation despite technological advances, unable to cope with a growing population, and unable to efficiently inject factors of production such as labor and capital into production sites, thus staying Malthusian Economies. Lastly, due to competition and war for limited supply, environmental pollution caused by pollutant discharge due to population growth, and climate crisis that is aggravated by global warming can again be put into a Malthus trap due to population decline. 3)The industrial revolution shows us a clear signal of the escape from the Malthusian era. So the causes that lead to the revolution or intensive growth of technology are the key points standing between the pre-Malthusian era(or called the trap) and post-Malthusian. In this sense, I would say that the most important key requirement to get stuck in the Malthusian trap is the absence of a proper society system, which is liberalism or economic liberalism(Laissez-faire). The UK could achieve the industrial revolution faster than any other country. In other words, they could escape from the Malthusian era as the first. It is because they made the proper system in that society for the intensive growth, which is originated from the Bourgeois revolutions and religious reformations. Specifically, after these events changed people’s mindset, other systemical things started to change such as the law for the private economy, meritocracy, capitalists, mode of production, and equality, which are the background to establish liberalism or economic liberalism . Liberalism, or economic liberalism, is the proper society system I mentioned. The reason why it is like this is that it lets people pursue private benefits, so efficiency also followed. Further, as the competition was intensified, division of labor and spontaneity are established. Decisively, it allowed the accumulation of capital and investment of it. As a stable, safe, and mature society guaranteed by fair laws was born, it leads to more freedom and relaxation for people so that they can engage in industries. Finally, it was bloomed as the industrial revolution. I think that the reformations and revolutions that changed ideology are more precious and important in human history rather than the industrial revolution itself. Because the industrial revolution is just a consequence coming from the changed perspective, attitude, and mindset. As we once did think about thinking like an economist, what is important is not the consequence of thinking ( of course it is also important), rather, the thinking process how it arrives there is the key. Also, it is what we have to learn. From this sense, I think that the key part of the Malthusian era is not the absence of invention of something or plentiful resources, it is the absence of the proper system or society. 4)The Malthusian economy is an interpretation of the pre-industrial economy. The key to society getting stuck into a Malthusian economy is that social resources cannot meet the needs of population growth. The theory put forward by Malthus is that the living resources provided by land for human production cannot keep up with population growth. The contradiction between resources and population leads to wars, diseases, and other problems in the agricultural society (only in this way can the population be reduced to solve the problem of insufficient land resources), technological progress is slow. The slow productivity increases the population growth, but the per capita income would not suffer as a result. The Malthusian economy describes a short-term increase in per capita income that can result from technological progress. An increase in income leads to an increase in population and a decrease in agricultural productivity. In a Malthusian economy, the standard of living is determined by the size of the population. Per capita income stagnation globally during the pre-industrial period indicates population increase based on resource expansion. In such an environment, any modest technical advancement or additional land resources will be devoured by a population increase, resulting in more population rather than richer people. Differing areas will have different levels of technical advancement, but this will only be reflected in population density rather than living conditions. Due to the promotion of modern agricultural technology, the upper limit of the population that can be fed by food has been further increased. With the development of urbanization and the improvement of economic level, people are unwilling to let the living standards of their descendants decline, and the willingness to have children for parts of people also declines, and the population growth becomes lower. The population growth pattern of developing countries is a high birth rate and low death rate, while the population growth pattern of developed countries is a low birth rate and low death rate, therefore we may never reach the next Malthusian economy.
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